評論
打印
Finance & economics
財經
Global housing markets
全球房地產市場
The three pillars
三大支柱
Why, despite the coronavirus pandemic, house prices continue to rise.
新冠當下，房價為何還在漲？
During the global recession a decade ago, real house prices fell by an average of 10%, wiping trillions of dollars off the world's largest asset class. Though the housing market has not been the trigger of economic woes this time, investors and homeowners still braced for the worst as it became clear that covid-19 would push the world economy into its deepest downturn since the Depression of the 1930s.
十年前的全球衰退導致房價平均下跌了10%，世界最大的資產類別損失了數萬億美元。顯然，新冠肺炎將把世界經濟推入自上世紀30年代大蕭條以來最嚴重的衰退。儘管這一次房地產市場並非經濟危機的導火索，但投資者和房主已然做好了最壞的打算。
That pessimism now looks misplaced. House prices picked up in most middle and-high-income countries in the second quarter. In the rich world they rose at an annual rate of 5%. Share prices of developers and property-traders fell by a quarter in the early phase of the pandemic, but have recovered much of the fall.
現在看來，這種悲觀情緒似乎不合時宜。大多數中高收入國家的房價在第二季度已經有所回升，發達國家的房價則以每年5%的速度在增長。疫情初期，開發商和房地產商的股價下跌了四分之一，但目前已經收復了大部分失地。
Some markets are fizzing. In August house prices in Germany were 11% higher than the year before; rapid growth in South Korea and parts of China has prompted the authorities to tighten restrictions on buyers. In America growth in the median price per square foot accelerated more quickly in the second quarter of 2020 than in any three-month period in the lead-up to the financial crisis of 2007-09. Three factors explain this strength: monetary policy, fiscal policy and buyers' changing preferences.
一些市場正在沸騰。8月德國的房價較去年增加了11%。韓國和中國部分地區房價漲勢迅猛，政府不得不收緊對購房者的限制。美國2020年第二季度每平方英尺中值價格的增長速度比2007-09年金融危機前的任何一個季度都要快。可以解釋這一優勢的因素有三點：貨幣政策、財政政策和購房者偏好的變化。
Consider monetary policy first. Central bankers around the world have cut policy rates by two percentage points on average this year, reducing the cost of mortgage borrowing. Americans can take out a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at an annual interest rate of just 2.9%, down from 3.7% at the beginning of the year. Studies suggest a strong link between falling real interest rates and higher house prices. Some borrowers can afford to take out bigger mortgages; others find it easier to manage their existing loans. Landlords are willing to pay more for property, because yields on other assets have dropped. In both America and Britain, mortgage lending is running at post-financial-crisis highs.
首先是貨幣政策。今年，世界各國央行將政策利率平均下調了2個百分點，降低了抵押貸款的成本。美國人可以以每年2.9%的利率獲得30年期固定利率抵押貸款，比年初下降了0.8%。研究表明，實際利率的下降與房價上漲之間存在聯繫密切。一些借款人能夠承擔更大的抵押貸款，而其他借款人則發現管理現有貸款變得更加容易。房東願意為房產支付更多的錢，因為其他資產的收益已經下降。在美國和英國，抵押貸款都處在金融危機後的最高水平。
That is not to say that it has become easier for everyone to borrow. In fact, obtaining a mortgage has become harder for many. Brokers, fearful of the long-term economic impact of covid-19, have pulled back on riskier lending. British banks, for instance, are offering fewer high-loan-to-income mortgages. In America few loan officers at banks said they were tightening lending standards before the pandemic; now 60% do. In contrast with previous periods of strong house-price growth, there is little evidence of lax lending standards.
這並不是説貸款對每個人來説都變得更加容易，實際上有很多人越來越難獲得貸款。因為擔心新冠會給經濟帶來長期影響，經紀公司已經撤回了高風險貸款。例如，英國的銀行正在減少提供高貸款收入比的抵押貸款。在美國，疫情爆發前銀行很少有信貸員説他們在收緊貸款標準，而現在有60%的信貸員這麼説。與之前房價暴漲的時期相比，貸款標準顯有鬆懈跡象。
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